The chances we'll be saved from the drought by a strong El Nino this fall and winter are going down.  

National Weather Service special meteorologist Michelle Mead says the probability is down to 65 percent.

"Last month it was looking stronger that during the winter it would be more likely -- an 80 percent chance," she said. 

Mead also says that number doesn't relate to the possible intensity of an El Nino.

"We're definitely going to be transitioning to a wetter period, but there is definitely no guarantee that it's going to start raining Oct. 1 and not stop," Mead said. 

If we do get an El Nino event Mead says the effects won't start until later this month or next.